# 2015 Smallie Outlook



## FLIPNPITCH (Apr 15, 2009)

By most accounts '14 was definitely a little slower and tougher than recent years. Granted, we had an excellent run the last few years for numbers and size. I fish from Steubenville to St Mary's, mostly Hannibal pool though, and the fishing was definitely tougher, numbers and sizes were down. I didn't see nearly the numbers of shad last fall and all of this past year. Might be even tougher this year. What's everyone think?


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## Bad Bub (Jan 17, 2006)

I'm scared I may never catch a smallmouth in 2015, as bad as 2014 was for me....


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## FLIPNPITCH (Apr 15, 2009)

Were the shad as scarce for you up that way? Late fall of 2013 I noticed the shad just weren't there. Then all of last year really scarce. Think I only fished out of Rayland once and Steubenville once all year. Both times pre fishing and never found anything to warrant locking thru. Tough bite everywhere. Thought maybe just me for a while but tourneys started showing same thing.


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## Bad Bub (Jan 17, 2006)

It's not just you. Shad have been almost nonexistent the last 2 years. Occasionally, you'll run across a small pod of them, but that's it. I could probably count on one hand how many Thursday evening stuebenville tournaments were won with a limit in '14...


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## Doboy (Oct 13, 2008)

Bad Bub said:


> I'm scared I may never catch a smallmouth in 2015, as bad as 2014 was for me....



Smallies???,,, TERRIBLE X2

Only once, in the last 2 years, have 'we' seen a large school of HUGE shad below our favorite dam.

Bummer,,,, I should'a caught a cooler full & froze 'em.


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## FLIPNPITCH (Apr 15, 2009)

Bub we need to hook up this spring and chase em for a day! I meet ya in Steubenville.


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## Carver (Jan 20, 2010)

The Ohio River has serious issue and it is probably going to get worse.


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## Bad Bub (Jan 17, 2006)

I'm gonna start catfishing if these Smallies don't straighten up!


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## GarrettMyers (May 16, 2011)

Bad Bub said:


> I'm scared I may never catch a smallmouth in 2015, as bad as 2014 was for me....



Same here man. I mainly fish the LMR and this year was horrific. I think the lack of shad plus the historically bad winter last year really messed up the population. There are some spots I know that have always given up good numbers of smallies every year. In '14, I didn't catch a single fish the entire year from these spots. Overall, I caught a couple 18 inchers and a couple 17's, but I spent more time than I'll ever admit on the water last year. On the bright side, the LMR and GMR were jam packed with shad this fall (almost none last fall). That can't be a bad thing. 


Sent from my iPhone using Ohub Campfire


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## Hatchetman (Apr 13, 2004)

Carver said:


> The Ohio River has serious issue and it is probably going to get worse.


Do you know something we don't ? What do you mean it will probably get worse?


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## kapposgd (Apr 10, 2012)

Shad are very susceptible to winter die offs. Last year the cold temps killed off way more than normal


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## streamstalker (Jul 8, 2005)

GarrettMyers said:


> Same here man. I mainly fish the LMR and this year was horrific. I think the lack of shad plus the historically bad winter last year really messed up the population. There are some spots I know that have always given up good numbers of smallies every year. In '14, I didn't catch a single fish the entire year from these spots. Overall, I caught a couple 18 inchers and a couple 17's, but I spent more time than I'll ever admit on the water last year. On the bright side, the LMR and GMR were jam packed with shad this fall (almost none last fall). That can't be a bad thing.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Ohub Campfire


That pretty much sums up our year here in Central Ohio in the Muskingum and Scioto watersheds for smallies. In the previous years, I alone caught more 18+ smallies than all of the usual guys I fish with put together caught this year. All of them would make the same statement. In other words, I don't think I saw six 18+ inch smallies all year, and that was after hundreds of miles of kayaking trips on everthing that flows around here. 

Yes, it looks like it was a strong year for shad here too. On one fall trip on the Licking River above Dillon Reservoir, we saw shad in numbers in size like nothing we had ever seen before, a true natural phenomenon!


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## eelboy (Dec 17, 2005)

Shad die off occurs at a water temperature of 42 degrees so a bad winter does not matter for shad


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## Bad Bub (Jan 17, 2006)

eelboy said:


> Shad die off occurs at a water temperature of 42 degrees so a bad winter does not matter for shad


If that was truly the case here in the north, shad would have been extinct long ago...


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## GarrettMyers (May 16, 2011)

eelboy said:


> Shad die off occurs at a water temperature of 42 degrees so a bad winter does not matter for shad



I ran into a hybrid feeding frenzy when the water was 43 deg last spring. Those shad were extremely active. Good thing it wasn't one degree cooler, they would have all spontaneously died.


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## strongto (Apr 1, 2013)

Shad die offs occur when temps drop quickly or in water that is cold for an extended period of time. A colder winter will cause more to die off but it is true that die offs occur when the temps drop into the lower 40's. This doesn't mean that all shad will spontaneously die but many will be weakened causing large die offs.


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## Bad Bub (Jan 17, 2006)

Right. The old and weak are susceptible to cold, just like any other living being. Of course, certain shad species can survive lower temps and larger swings than other species. Our gizzard shad are about as tough and hardy as shad can get. The threadfin shad of the southern states are very fragile when it comes to even air pressure changes. An average Ohio winter would be certain death.


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## eelboy (Dec 17, 2005)

Geez, I assumed this group would know what a die-off is....quite obvious not every shad dies but large numbers do in the low 40s. The great fishing at 43 degrees just maybe triggered by the die-off. For people who regularly fish that time of year it is common knowledge that the die-off triggers a feeing frenzy.


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## GarrettMyers (May 16, 2011)

Bad Bub said:


> Right. The old and weak are susceptible to cold, just like any other living being. Of course, certain shad species can survive lower temps and larger swings than other species. Our gizzard shad are about as tough and hardy as shad can get. The threadfin shad of the southern states are very fragile when it comes to even air pressure changes. An average Ohio winter would be certain death.



Agree ^^^^


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## Procraftboats21 (Apr 6, 2004)

2013 was the best I've ever seen, many can attest to that, 2014 was a typical river year. How and why I'm not sure but I've seen it to many times in my life to not believe they migrate much farther than some want to believe. 70 some boats during the x series event on the New Cumberland pool I had one of the 3 limits. Every years different but I would bet it's headed downward for a few years


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## Bad Bub (Jan 17, 2006)

eelboy said:


> Geez, I assumed this group would know what a die-off is....quite obvious not every shad dies but large numbers do in the low 40s. The great fishing at 43 degrees just maybe triggered by the die-off. For people who regularly fish that time of year it is common knowledge that the die-off triggers a feeing frenzy.


Shad die off all year long for various reasons. Some of the biggest kills actually happen during summer during long stretches of hot weather, but you don't hear about the great fishing when water temps hit 85+ degrees... Predator fish, especially a smallmouth, don't need shad to start dying in order to feed heavily. I believe the fact that fish start feeding heavily in late fall/early winter has more to do with winter coming than it does with shad dying. I fish small lakes and ponds that don't have shad, yet the fish (all species) tend to "turn on" at the same basic time. Now I'll agree that imitating a distressed shad during a "die off" is a viable pattern, but I just don't believe a fish has the ability to put 2&2 together to say "o.k., the water just got cold enough for the shad to die, time to start eating them"...


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## RodMan (Apr 6, 2004)

2003 was my best smallmouth fishing year on the river hands down, followed by 2013. Looks like a ten year cycle based on my experience. Hope I don't have to wait another 8 years for things to bounce back.


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